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Tag >> anticipating project problems
Mar 31
2010

Strategic decisions: Trusting your gut is overrated

Posted by yoonsie in wisdomstrategystrategic decisionsproject lifecyclepremortemNobel PrizeMcKinsey & Co.managementintuitionGary KleinDaniel Kahnemancritical CIO skillschallenging leadership judgmentsC-level executivesanticipating project problems

yoonsie

Sometimes you have to trust your gut. There are even situations when following your instincts is the best approach. Rarely, however, is strategic decision making by an executive one of those times. In an interview in the current McKinsey Quarterly, two great scholars whose studies usually represent opposing views, agree that leaders' decisions based on intuition are usually not the wisest. Princeton psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for his work in prospect theory, which deals with the counterintuitive choices make under uncertainty. Gary Klein, a senior scientist at MacroCognition, studies intuition as a powerful factor in good decision making in high-pressure situations. Yet they agree that when in comes to executives in organizational decision making, intuition is overvalued.

 





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