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By Matthew Quinn
Apparently not even one of the greatest financial crises ever and an economic slowdown can deter the Internet.
Global IP traffic will quintuple from 2008 to 2013 and the Internet will be nearly four times larger in 2013 than it is in 2009, according to new research from Cisco Systems released on Tuesday.
IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over those five years and will exceed two-thirds of a zettabyte (667 exabytes) by 2013, Cisco said. In a similar study last year, Cisco forecasted traffic would hit 522 exabytes per year in 2012. The economic downturn slightly tempered that growth and Cisco revised its 2012 forecast to 510 exabytes.
The growth in the overall size of the Internet will be driven by video content. By the end of 2013, the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs will cross the Internet each month, Cisco said.
Internet video is now approximately one-third of all consumer Internet traffic, not including the amount of video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. Cisco anticipates, excluding P2P, Internet video's share of global consumer Internet traffic will exceed 60% by 2013. Factoring in all forms - TV, video on demand, Internet and P2P - video will account for over 91% of global consumer traffic by 2013.
Cisco said it would take well over half a million years for one person to watch all the online video that will cross the network each month in 2013.
Though still a small fraction of overall Internet traffic, video communications traffic, such as video over instant messaging and video calling, are expected to increase tenfold from 2008 to 2013. Additionally, video-on-demand traffic will double every two years through 2013.
Adding to the growth in IP traffic is the meteoric rise of mobile data traffic, which is forecast to grow at CAGR of 131% between 2008 and 2013, Cisco found. Nearly 64% of mobile data traffic will be video by 2013 and over 80% of traffic will be coming from mobile broadband handsets with speeds over the current 3G wireless speed and laptop aircards.
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 33% from 2008 to 2013, driven by growth in IP wide are network (WAN) traffic, which will grow at a CAGR of 36% compared to 32% for business Internet.
Geographically, IP traffic will increase fastest in the Middle East and Africa, which both are expected to grow at a CAGR of 51%. Latin America will experience the next fastest growth at 50%, Cisco said. North America IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 39% and reach 13 exabytes per month by 2013. IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 21 exabytes per month by 2013 at a CAGR of 42%.
Business IP traffic will increase at a CAGR of 33% from 2008 to 2013, driven by growth in IP wide are network (WAN) traffic, which will grow at a CAGR of 36% compared to 32% for business Internet.
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