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Gartner, the IT market research and consulting company, just put up a list of 10 events and developments that it says will shape the IT landscape this year and beyond. Gartner is using the list to show CIOs and other IT executives where they should be concentrating resources now so that they're in a position to exploit these trends in the next couple of years for their company's competitive advantage.
Some of these predictions aren't too surprising, but other may give you pause.
The predictions are as follows:
By 2009, more than a third of IT organizations will have one or more environmental criteria in their buying checklists for IT-related goods. "Enterprise data centers are struggling to keep pace with the increasing power requirements of their infrastructures," Gartner says. "And there is substantial potential to improve the environmental footprint, throughout the life cycle, of all IT products and services without any significant trade-offs in price or performance."
By 2010, 75% of organizations will use full lifecycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteria. "Most technology providers have little or no knowledge of the full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint of their products...[but] by 2010 enterprises will be able to start using the information as a basis for purchasing decisions," according to Gartner.
By 2010, user preferences will decide as much as half of all acquisitions made by IT. "The rise of the Internet and the ubiquity of the browser interface have made computing approachable and individuals are now making decisions about technology for personal and business use. Because of this, IT organizations are addressing user concerns through planning for a global class of computing that incorporates user decisions in risk analysis and innovation of business strategy."
By 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe market share. "Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling)," Gartner says.
By 2011, early technology adopters will purchase 40% of their IT infrastructure as a service. "Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. Enterprises believe that as service oriented architecture (SOA) becomes common 'cloud computing' will take off, thus untying applications from specific infrastructure," says Gartner. The firms said that IT buyers should strengthen their purchasing and sourcing departments to evaluate offerings as they will have to develop and use new criteria for evaluating, selecting, and phasing out traditional ways of meeting their company's infrastructure demands.
By 2011, IT suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials via an audited process to retain preferred supplier status. "These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental regulations."
Through 2011, the number of 3-D printers will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels. "The technology lets users send a file of a 3-D design to a printer-like device that will carve the design out of a block of resin. A manufacturer can make scale models of new product designs without the expense of model makers.... Ultimately, manufacturers can consider making some components on demand without having an inventory of replacement parts."
By 2012, 50% of workers who travel will leave their laptop at home in favor of other, more mobile devices. "Vendors are developing...new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level; and server and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere," according to Gartner.
By 2012, 80% of all commercial software packages will include elements of open-source technology. "Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment," the researcher says.
By 2012, at least one-third of business application software budgets will be spent with vendors that offer software as a service (SaaS). The software subscription model, endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors, including Oracle, SAP, and Microsoft, says Gartner, "will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years."
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