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By Mel Duvall
Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to record a 6% decline in 2009 research firm Gartner said Thursday. But the good news is that the industry appears to be set for a recovery in the fourth quarter of the year.
In its updated forecast for the second half of 2009, Gartner predicted that PC shipments are on pace to reach 274 million units in 2009, a 6% decline from the 292 million units shipped in 2008. But with a new Windows operating system set to debut in October, Gartner believes the PC market is poised to post positive growth in the fourth quarter and the momentum should continue into 2010.
Gartner's latest forecast is somewhat brighter than its preliminary forecast from mid-May, which anticipated a 6.6% unit decline for 2009. However, its analysts urged caution, saying that while the market appears to be strengthening, it is still premature to say that the worst is over.
"PC unit growth was stronger than expected in all markets but Eastern Europe in the first quarter of 2009," said research director George Shiffler. "In particular, consumer shipments were much stronger than we anticipated. However, professional shipments continued to struggle, and we think much of the growth in consumer units was due to vendors and the channel restocking inventories rather than an upsurge in demand."
Sales of mini notebooks, or netbooks, continued to cushion the market's decline. Units are on track to reach 21 million this year and 30 million the next. Mobile PC sales are forecast to reach 149 million units in 2009, a 4.1% decrease over 2008, but overall spending on mobile PCs is expected to decline 12.8% as vendors continue to drop prices.
Desktop PCs are now expected to total 125 million units, a 15.7% decline from 2008, and overall spending is expected to drop 26.6%, again a reflection of discounting.
"Both mobile-PC and desk-based PC units are being held back by users extending PC lifetimes and delaying replacements in response to the ongoing economic slowdown," said Shiffler.
While the release of Windows 7 in October will be a boost, Gartner says the impact may be somewhat muted. "Unless Microsoft mounts a major marketing campaign in support of Windows 7, we think consumers will simply adopt the new operating system as they would normally buy new PCs and/or replace old ones," said Shiffler. "As for professional users, we still expect them to put off adopting the new OS for at least a year until they have fully tested their applications against it."
There were signs this week that Microsoft planned to take action to stimulate the market. The company announced Thursday that it would cut prices on the consumer version of Windows 7, and that it would offer consumers and small businesses buying computers before the launch of Windows 7 on Oct. 22 a free copy of the new operating system when it becomes available.
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