"There is a curse.
They say: May You Live in Interesting Times" - Terry Pratchett
While I'm consistently entertained by Pratchett's works, I was
reminded of this quote again this morning as I listened to the current
economic situation being described as "unprecendented" in a discussion
of risk management. We live in times of extraordinarily rapid change
and upheaval. We are constantly made aware of how broad and deep the
effects are and have been, and that there was no way to predict what
has occurred.
I consider myself, at best, to be an amateur historian. I took high
school history classes and though I like learning about the events,
causes and effects that ripple through to our times, I don't claim to
have a great deal of depth on the subject. Even so, I can't help but
think that as we bemoan the crises of the present, we've revisited the
mistakes of the past.
When it boils right down to it, the problems that we're all
suffering through are not unprecedented. Comparisons with earlier
market downturns shows marked consistency. If we take the time to look,
we can even see shades of the fall of empires in today's turmoil.
The question that keeps bothering me in all this is simple: Why do we keep walking into the same problems?
Which naturally leads to the next thought: What can we do to prevent making the same mistakes?
The answer may be more obvious than we think, and ties with the
context of last week's presentation: We need to deal with risk.
What led to the fall of the Roman empire? Lack of awareness of the
risks posed by, well, all kinds of events, choices and adversaries.
What led to the intervention of the USA in World War II? Choosing to invite the risk of retaliation by bombing Pearl Harbor.
What led to the rise of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan?
Training and funding from the USA to create an effective resistance
force against the U.S.S.R. (Over simplified and controversial?
Certainly. But there are a few too many examples of insurgents rising
to power and turning on their former supporters.)
What am I driving at? As leaders, we all have the opportunity and
responsibility to look beyond our immediate situation. We can and
should consider all known risks, no matter how remote. And, most
importantly, we need to challenge the assumptions we make when we
describe risks and threats.
I'd like to think we can remove the curse and enjoy living in interesting times.
Peter Fitzgerald is the founder of CareerSherpas.com, a full time Enterprise Business Analyst for a national non-profit organization, and is currently working on
his first book, conducting strategic business analysis, connecting
individuals with ideas and opportunities, and attempting to learn the
bagpipes.
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