CIOZone.com - Professional Network for CIOs and IT Professionals

It may only be installed on 2% of mobile devices today, but by 2012 research firm Gartner believes Google’s Android mobile operating system could leap into second place globally. In fact, Gartner believes Android will enjoy such a surge in popularity that it will capture 14% of the global smartphone market in 2012, putting it ahead of Windows Mobile, BlackBerry smartphones and even the Apple iPhone.

Gartner hasn’t yet issued a report on its latest forecast – the predictions were offered through an interview with analyst Ken Dulaney in a Computerworld article – but it represents what would be a dramatic reshaping of the mobile world.

According to a Gartner report from May of this year the Nokia Symbian mobile operating system accounted for 49.3% of the worldwide market in the first quarter of 2009, down from 56.9% in the first quarter of 2008. Nokia’s platform is hugely popular in Europe and some Asian markets, but not as prevalent in North America. Research in Motion’s BlackBerry smartphone OS held 19.9% of the market, up from 13.3% the year before, while the iPhone OS accounted for 10.8% of the market, up from 5.3% in the first quarter of 2008.

The big question, of course, is what is going on in the market that will cause the Google Android platform to enjoy such a huge surge? A big factor is the number of Android-based smartphones in the pipeline. In 2010 it is expected that as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship.

In fact, Motorola is very much betting its comeback on the Android platform which will serve as the foundation for its next generation of mobile devices. The Motorola Cliq, which T-Mobile will begin offering for pre-sale on Oct. 19, is its first Android-based smartphone. It features a technology called Motoblur, which can sync all of your social networking services, from Facebook and MySpace to Twitter, along with your emails, without separate logins or opening screens.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in Gartner’s forecast – which will be officially released at the upcoming Gartner Symposium ITxpo in Orlando, Oct. 18 to 22 – is the drop in market share for the BlackBerry. Gartner is predicting that the BlackBerry will fall from second place in market share down to fifth. The Nokia Symbian platform will loose ground but still remain No. 1 in 2012, Android will reach second place, the iPhone will stay in third, Windows Mobile will remain fourth, and the BlackBerry will fall to fifth.

Not sure why the BlackBerry will fall so much, but obviously competition is going to get a whole lot tougher over the next year.
 

Comments (1)

	1. 10-09-2009 15:16
	It’s amazing the fear Google seems to be able to elicit on the market. It barely has a toe in the smartphone market and already some analysts are predicting doom for BlackBerry maker Research in Motion. One financial analyst, Fabrice Taylor, commented that RIM’s glory days are over. Best case scenario he says it that it is able to modestly grow while providing deteriorating returns for investors. “The worst case is that it ends up on the technological slag heap like so many once-profitable and successful firms.”     I don’t know, it seems like a pretty radical forecast for a device that is absolutely glued to the hips of so many people. Registered

Mel Duvall

Only registered users can write comments.
Please login or register.