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By Rob Garretson
By 2015, the amount of new revenue generated from IT initiatives will
become the primary factor determining the incentive portion of new Global 2000
CIOs' annual compensation, according to new predictions released today
by research firm Gartner Inc.
According to its “top predictions for IT organizations and
users for 2011 and beyond” released today, four initiatives — context-aware
computing, IT's direct involvement in enterprise innovation development
efforts, pattern-based strategies and harnessing the power of social networks —
can potentially directly increase enterprise revenue. Executive and board-level
expectations for realizing revenue from those and other IT initiatives will become
so common that, in 2015, the amount of new revenue generated from IT
initiatives will become the primary factor determining the incentive portion of
new Global 2000 CIOs' annual compensation, Gartner said.
The prediction is among eight that Gartner analysts say
highlight the significant changes in the roles played by technology and IT
organizations in business, the global economy and the lives of individual
users. They also include forecasts that 80 percent of businesses will support a
workforce using tablets in just two years and that by 2014 , 90 percent of
organizations will support corporate applications on personal devices. The
projections were gleaned from among more than 100 of the strongest Gartner
predictions across all research areas were submitted for consideration this
year, the firms said.
"Gartner's top predictions showcase the trends and
disruptive events that will reshape the nature of business for the next year
and beyond," said Brian Gammage, vice president and Gartner fellow, in a
statement. "Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling
and critical predictions, the developments and topics they address this year
focus on changes in the roles that technologies and IT organizations play: in
the lives of workers, the performance of businesses and the wider world."
"With costs still under pressure, growth opportunities
limited and the tolerance to bear risk low, IT faces increased levels of
scrutiny from stakeholders both internal and external," added Darryl
Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner fellow. "As organizations
plan for the years ahead, our predictions focus on the impact this scrutiny
will have on outcomes, operations, users and reporting. All parties expect
greater transparency, and meeting this demand will require that IT become more
tightly coupled to the levers of business control."
Among the other top Gartner prediction that will materialize
by 2015 are that:
·
Information-smart businesses will increase
recognized IT spending per head by 60 percent;
·
Tools and automation will eliminate 25 percent
of labor hours associated with IT services;
·
20 percent of non-IT Global 500 companies will
be cloud service providers;
·
10 percent of your online "friends"
will be nonhuman; and
·
A G20 nation's critical infrastructure will be
disrupted and damaged by online sabotage.
Gartner attributes the projected 60-percent increase in
per-head IT spending to benefits from such recession-driven measures as consolidation,
optimization and cost transparency programs that many IT-enabled enterprises that
successfully navigated the recent recession and return to growth should enjoy.
In predicting a critical infrastructure disruption from
sabotage within at least one G20 nation, Gartner notes that online attacks can
be multimodal, in the sense of targeting multiple systems for maximum impact,
such as the financial system, physical plant or mobile communications. Such a
multimodal attack can have lasting effects beyond a temporary disruption, Gartner
suggests, comparing them to the lasting repercussions of the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks in the U.S.
Additional details on the firm’s report "Gartner's Top
Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2011 and Beyond: IT's Growing
Transparency" are available from Gartner.
Gammage and Plummer will host webinars on the Gartner predictions on Nov. 30
and Dec. 15.
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